Obama's "Historic" Triumph: Did He Win or Was it a GO George - Get Out George W. Victory by Default? by Gil Troy

The following blog was written by Gil Troy for the History News Network. Thought it was an interesting place to go with students and a good example of what "real" history is all about. You can find the original text here: http://hnn.us/blogs/entries/56983.html

Obama's "Historic" Triumph: Did He Win or Was it a GO George – Get Out George W. Victory by Default?

Historians have to navigate carefully when entering the strange, alluring world of media commentary. To maintain our integrity, we need boundaries. Presumably, those of us who comment believe that offering historical perspective even as history unfolds can elevate public debate, using current events as "teachable moments." But most of the time journalists want us – especially on television – to do things we should not do, namely predict the future or determine the historical meaning of fleeting events as they unfold. Even on the air, historians should dodge certain questions. We should never predict. And we should sidestep premature queries such as "Is George W. Bush the worst president ever," halfway through his term. Anyone who survived oral exams should be able to handle it. During last week's remarkable redemptive moment as Barack Obama won the presidency, it seemed that most of the media wanted to trot out historians to certify that this election was indeed "historic."

Of course, it does not take a Ph.D. in history to note that the first elevation of a black man to the White House in a country with America’s racist past was momentous. Moreover, every presidential election is historic given the attention we pay to voting and the job's significance. But this question of "was this election historic" was fishing in deeper waters. Reporters wanted historians to label 2008 as significant as 1980 when Ronald Reagan launched his revolution or 1960 when John Kennedy inspired a generation or 1932 when Franklin Roosevelt tackled the Great Depression. And historians can safely say that there never had been such a cataclysmic domestic event during a general election campaign as this Crash of 2008. But we all know that it is too early to know whether Barack Obama's presidency will be as transformative as he hopes. He could be the next Franklin D. Roosevelt – or Jimmy Carter redux.

As we wait to watch, and assess the historical impact of Barack Obama's administration, we should start debating just what caused his victory. Here we have a legitimate "teachable" moment – showing how historians start thinking about a problem, start solving an historical mystery. One debate I have started with my students is whether Barack Obama won this election, or John McCain and the Republican lost it?

In asking the question, we have to acknowledge its artificiality. The accurate answer is "yes," meaning it was a combination of factors. But the question gets students thinking about what were the most significant causes. My next step is suggesting that we construct a timeline of turning points, which helps answer the question and gets us to start weighing historical significance. I propose four turning points in this election:

-- The first is Obama's extraordinary 2004 Democratic National Convention speech. I believe historians will deem it more significant than William Jennings Bryan's 1896 speech because it launched Obama into the celebrity stratosphere and toward the presidency.

-- The second turning point is something that did not happen – or happened subsequently. Had Hillary Clinton run a war room as tough and efficient as her husband's, and had her campaign uncovered the Jeremiah Wright tapes in the winter of 2008 before the Iowa caucuses, I doubt Obama would have won Iowa. This is a mischievous turning point, which raises questions about how historians assess missed opportunities, and speculate about potential outcomes. It also helps raise the question that will emerge as we start debating George W. Bush's legacy – how do we assess something that did not happen, in his case, the fact that as of this writing there has been no catastrophic terrorist attack on American soil since 2001. How much credit can someone get for a bell that did not ring, a fear that was not realized. As for Hillary, how harshly do we judge a candidate or a campaign for overlooking what could have been a knockout blow?

-- The third turning point is the market implosion. Whatever momentum McCain enjoyed after the Soviets invaded Georgia during the summer and his energized convention (thanks to Sarah Palin's debut) vanished. As the fourth major disaster under George W. Bush's watch, following 9/11, Iraq and Katrina, the financial crisis made it all but impossible for a Republican to win.

-- Finally, I point to Obama's performance during the debates, especially the third debate. That the young, inexperienced upstart Democrat appeared to be the mature candidate against his older, more experienced rival, made Obama look presidential and helped allay many Americans' anxieties about this relative unknown.

This list is intended to trigger debate. Others would mention Hillary Clinton’s Super Tuesday strategy that ignored the causcuses, Sarah Palin's nomination, McCain's decision to suspend his campaign, Obama's opposition to the Iraq war. It is important also to go beyond this event-driven list and talk about Obama's extraordinary strategy, his effective use of the internet, and his brilliant ground game, organizing thousands of workers across the nation. And while the four turning points offer two affirmative actions of Obama's and two events beyond his control, I ultimately conclude that Obama was lucky to be blessed with two flawed opponents.

For all the skills Obama demonstrated and the forces he marshaled, I argue that Hillary Clinton, John McCain, George W. Bush, and the Republicans lost this election as much as Obama won. Just as Ronald Reagan won an ABC election in 1980 – anybody but Carter – Obama won a GO George – Get Out George W. Bush --election this year. This conclusion does not diminish from the dare I say it, historic nature of Obama's victory. Rather, it is an early attempt to plunge into the debate assessing the outcome of the wild, rollicking, unpredictable, and potentially transformative 2008 campaign.

The Letters of John and Abigail Adams and What it Means to Us

Reading “My Dearest Friend” has given me a particular insight into the lives of one of our Founding Fathers that one rarely comes across. John Adams served in Philadelphia and Europe at a time when letters could take weeks and months to reach their destination. They were separated on several occasions throughout John’s tenure for, in some cases, years at a time. In 1774, John’s daughter Abigail was 9 and his sons John, Charlie and Tommy were 7, 4 and 2. When he finally came home for good, They were adults who were either married with children or beginning their careers. The man missed an entire lifetime with his children and lamented about that continuously. However, he did what he did for the good of all of us - yep, I said “us”. He wrote about the generations that would come later, about his great grandchildren who would grow up in a country free from government oppression. He sacrificed because he understood that if he didn’t, then his children would have to – and that sacrifice may very well have been bigger. I think that we have forgotten that concept about making things better for our children. Sure, we go to war to fight for posterity, or to “maintain our freedom” but the fact of the matter is that our “freedom” comes from within us. It comes from the ordinary citizen making an effort to be informed and not preoccupied with their own financial bubble. Then it mandates action when something is amiss rather than the complacency that someone else will take care of it. Civic engagement is something that I believe we are all lacking in some respect, and have been for a while.

Staying engaged takes time, effort and perseverance – it isn’t easy and it isn’t something that one can do poolside for ½ hour on a Sunday afternoon – but it is so vitally important to this nation. What is happening now , with a president continuously overstepping his constitutional bounds and congress allowing him to do so, with a mass of people that are allowing their president to take them headlong into war on a continuous string of lies, one can only see that our “Democracy” faltering. It’s the PEOPLE in a Democracy that make the democracy, not the leaders and right now, the PEOPLE are anything but democratic because so many are not paying attention. Cynicism, corruption and “good ole boy” networking has literally crippled our government. So much can go on when people are ignorant of their own past and country and are not being vigilant because of it. You want to know why history is important? It gives us the knowledge base necessary to make judgements and spot infringements on the Constitution. Real knowledge, not the stuff you get from a 30 second attack ad. Right now our students are graduating without that real knowledge and the American people are anything but vigilant. Scares me to death.

Getting off "foreign" oil

Lately the question of off shore drilling has become front and center in response to the "crisis" American's are facing at the gas pump. I am really quite perplexed at the entire argument that "Drill, baby, drill" will help us. How is it that people actually believe that in the 102 years since Henry Ford patented the internal combustible engine, human beings have been unable to create anything better? If we had continued on the alternative energy quest in the 1970's, our world would be a cleaner, greener place by now and we would very likely not be facing the same climate crisis we are. Alternative energy fuels and technology have been suppressed by the very oil barons and giant companies we complain about because of their record wealth and profits. Our own president and many in his party have close ties to the oil industry which continually supplies lobbyists and others to block real energy reform which will hurt their profits.

So, in the ego-centric, most painless way possible humans always do things, we look to "solve" the problem by closing our eyes and minds to real solutions and drilling oil in the last pristine wilderness places we have left on the planet. Great Idea! Let's invite the possibility of more devastating oil spills, disturb the natural chain of life, destroy more land and seascapes and further endanger the very population of plant and wildlife that keeps humans fed and breathing. For what? So people can have another fix to their addiction of SUVs and Pickup Trucks? So people can have a dollar a gallon reprieve for about 5-10 years or so until our demand once again surpasses our supply? So people can continue to walk around with blinders on that as long as they are ok, the rest of the world is too? Then what? Watch our children struggle with the same problem our parents struggled with 30 years ago and failed to solve because it required too much motivation or because of want of convenience? God forbid we make the leap and suffer the growing pains a change in fuel will cost us so our children will grow up in a world where oil is no longer king. Let's not change our habits or put our energies into really solving problems instead of whining and finding band aids for a crisis that will overtake us, no matter how much more oil we find. Why is it so difficult for people to sacrifice some prestige or convenience in the name of sustaining life on this planet through cleaner ways of doing our daily business? Why do we find it impossible to take advantage of a financial crisis to find the motivation and courage to move forward and change the world?

The argument for opening up protected lands is a shallow, pathetic, near-sighted way of convincing ourselves that the human race is not really in trouble, that our planet is not really in a crisis - all we need to do is find more oil pockets and everything will fine ...at least until those pockets run out and we find ourselves in the "enviable" position of having no alternative fuels and a shortage of oil......for the third time in a generation. How many more warnings do we need and how can people be so blind to the big picture and long-term consequences of their actions? Now that gas prices have begun to fall, I will bet that the clamor for alternative fuels will subside along with them, as it is just enough of a reprieve to allow people to bury their heads back in the sand and shut out the rest of the world again. Fear not, folks, the prices will rise again!

In the issue of energy costs, Obama has stayed somewhat true to his own beliefs and continues to tout complete energy reform – a goal that is both holistic and long term next to McCain’s temporary, incomplete and self absorbed solution of off shore drilling. Can you say "campaign tactic"? The problem here is that the American voting public is just as self-absorbed and buys into the "win at all costs" mentality that will leave us with a broken planet that cannot provide the resources necessary to sustain a capitalist economy.

It is not about getting the US off foreign oil. Its about getting the US off oil. period.